​Emphasis on Recent Form

A clear pattern from 2018–2024 shows that nearly all winners arrived in solid shape—often with at least one top-10 finish in the preceding weeks or strong season-long ball-striking stats.

• Betting Angle: Prioritise golfers who are trending well in the run-up to the Championship, especially those excelling in strokes gained off-the-tee and approach.

 

Favourites vs. Mid-Tier

While favourites do lift the Wanamaker Trophy more often than not, mid-range contenders have made their mark.

• Historical Data: Over the past seven editions, around half the winners were among the top 10 in the betting market, but two emerged from the 25/1 to 50/1 range.

• Betting Angle: Balance your card with a couple of favourites plus one or two players in that mid-tier bracket who have shown flashes of elite form.

 

Longshot Potential

The PGA Championship has occasionally seen big-priced contenders mount a serious challenge, though true longshots rarely seal the deal.

• Historical Data: A few triple-digit odds players recorded top-5 or top-10 finishes from 2018–2024, but none won outright.

• Betting Angle: If you’re seeking a big payout, target longshots in top-10 or top-20 markets. Look for players with one standout skill—like exceptional driving distance or a strong short game—that could shine on a challenging set-up.

 

Weekend Momentum

Several winners in this period surged to victory with a strong third or fourth round, especially at courses where scoring was tough and par held value.

• Betting Angle: In-play bettors should monitor players who are striking the ball well but not necessarily converting every chance—if the putter heats up late, they can jump up the leaderboard quickly.

 

Numbers to Note

• Typical Winning Score: Often sits in the single digits to low double digits under par, depending on course difficulty and weather.

• Top-10 Finishers’ Odds: Roughly half each year come from the upper echelon of the betting market; the rest are mid-tier or longshots who’ve hit form at the right time.

• Champions’ Pre-Tournament Odds: Around half of the recent winners were among the top 10 favourites, with the rest typically in that 25/1–50/1 zone.

 

Conclusion

While the PGA Championship doesn’t always produce an underdog champion, it does allow for a broader range of contenders compared to some other majors. Focus on players who have posted strong recent results and show solid ball-striking metrics. Mix proven favourites with a few mid-tier picks—plus the odd longshot for a top-10 or top-20 flutter—and you’ll be well-placed to enjoy a profitable PGA Championship week.

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Check PGA leaderboards and betting odds for 2018-2024 here