Kelly Staking

 How to use the Kelly Calculator

  

For Projected Odds enter your probability estimate as either fractional odds, decimal odds or a percentage. For Bookmaker Odds again enter either fractional odds, decimal odds or a percentage (different odds formats can be used for Projected Odds & Bookmaker Odds).  Alternatively enter an Edge instead of projected odds. Projected Odds are calculated as decimal odds / (100 + n) %. For example 10% edge of 8.0 would give projected decimal odds of 7.27 ( 8.0 / 1.1 ).  The Bank is the theoretical amount of your total betting bank and should be within a comfortable amount you are prepared to lose.

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About Kelly and should you use it?

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Theoretically Kelly maximises returns by staking according to the probability of an outcome and the odds of reward, leveraging stakes as the edge increases.  See the Wikipedia page for further details.

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Given sports predictions are inherently inaccurate as they rely on estimations and partial information, Kelly should be used with caution. This is especially true at short odds where a large percentage of your bank can be committed to a selection.  Capping your stake is the best way of mitigating against over-staking.  A maximum 3% stake is probably a good starting point but may vary by market.  It should always be remembered in liquid betting markets such as match odds edges of over 5% would be very good.  Trying realistic edges on the calculator for various odds is a way of discovering what would be good caps. 

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Kelly staking shouldn't be used blindly but it's very useful to be used as a tool when you want to discover sensible stakes.  Especially in the case of golf outright betting where there's a wide range of odds, Kelly can be helpful in finding the right stakes.